Global Risk Research Articles

Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates.

In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

A scoping review of road traffic data systems in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background: Road traffic injury is a major global health risk, however, under-reporting of road traffic crashes data and the use of different reporting systems have made it difficult to compare data across countries. Aim: To examine published and grey literature for better understanding of available health and non-health road traffic data systems in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries. Methods: We conducted a systematic search of databases to identify studies reporting road traffic data systems in the EMR countries between 2011 and January 2022. We also searched grey literature on the websites of government, WHO, World Bank, UNICEF, regional economic commissions and other relevant institutions. We assembled the data in Microsoft Excel and presented the counts of data sources, data types and data quality. Results: We included 84 of 2238 studies accessed in this review. One-third of the publications was from the Islamic Republic of Iran while 10% was from Pakistan. Police databases were the primary sources of data in most of the studies (79%) while hospital and death registration systems together accounted for one-quarter of the databases. The most common indicators reported in the publications were deaths (61%), crashes (48%) and injuries (35%). Only 40% of the studies disaggregated their analyses by gender and 44% by age. No papers identified permanently linked data sources, although more than a quarter of the papers reviewed used some form of modelling or data mining. Conclusion: This scoping review highlights an over-reliance on police data, poor quality traffic data systems, and multiple stakeholders collecting similar data, leading to redundancy. EMR countries need to establish robust road safety data systems to provide data for relevant policies and interventions

The Effect of Diesel Exhaust Particles on Adipose Tissue Mitochondrial Function and Inflammatory Status

Air pollution poses a significant global health risk, with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) such as diesel exhaust particles (DEPs) being of particular concern due to their potential to drive systemic toxicities through bloodstream infiltration. The association between PM2.5 exposure and an increased prevalence of metabolic disorders, including obesity, metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), is evident against a backdrop of rising global obesity and poor metabolic health. This paper examines the role of adipose tissue in mediating the effects of PM2.5 on metabolic health. Adipose tissue, beyond its energy storage function, is responsive to inhaled noxious stimuli, thus disrupting metabolic homeostasis and responding to particulate exposure with pro-inflammatory cytokine release, contributing to systemic inflammation. The purpose of this study was to characterize the metabolic response of adipose tissue in mice exposed to either DEPs or room air (RA), exploring both the adipokine profile and mitochondrial bioenergetics. In addition to a slight change in fat mass and a robust shift in adipocyte hypertrophy in the DEP-exposed animals, we found significant changes in adipose mitochondrial bioenergetics. Furthermore, the DEP-exposed animals had a significantly higher expression of adipose inflammatory markers compared with the adipose from RA-exposed mice. Despite the nearly exclusive focus on dietary factors in an effort to better understand metabolic health, these results highlight the novel role of environmental factors that may contribute to the growing global burden of poor metabolic health.

The global burden and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in adolescent and young adults, 1990–2019

BackgroundTo provide details of the burden and the trend of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors in adolescent and young adults.MethodsAge-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were used to describe the burden of CVD in adolescents and young adults. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) of ASRs were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Risk factors were calculated by Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs).ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CVD were 129.85 per 100 000 (95% Confidence interval (CI): 102.60, 160.31), 15.12 per 100 000 (95% CI: 13.89, 16.48) and 990.64 per 100 000 (95% CI: 911.06, 1076.46). The highest ASRs were seen in low sociodemographic index (SDI) and low-middle SDI regions. The burden was heavier in male and individuals aged 35–39. From 1990 to 2019, 72 (35.29%) countries showed an increasing trend of ASIR and more than 80% countries showed a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Rheumatic heart disease had the highest ASIR and Ischemic Heart Disease was the highest in both ASMR and ASDR. The main attributable risk factor for death and DALYs were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index and high LDL cholesterol.ConclusionsThe burden of CVD in adolescent and young adults is a significant global health challenge. It is crucial to take into account the disparities in SDI levels among countries, gender and age characteristics of the population, primary types of CVD, and the attributable risk factors when formulating and implementing prevention strategies.

Application of the ERS/ATS Spirometry Standards and Race-Neutral Equations in the COPDGene Study.

The European Respiratory Society (ERS) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) recommend using z-scores, and the ATS has recommended using Global Lung Initiative (GLI)- "Global" race-neutral reference equations for spirometry interpretation. However, these recommendations have been variably implemented and the impact has not been widely assessed, both in clinical and research settings. We evaluated the ERS/ATS airflow obstruction severity classification. In the COPDGene Study (n = 10,108), airflow obstruction has been defined as a forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio <0.70, with spirometry severity graded from class 1 to 4 based on race-specific percent predicted (pp) FEV1 cut-points as recommended by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the GOLD approach, using NHANES III race-specific equations, to the application of GLI-Global equations using the ERS/ATS definition of airflow obstruction as FEV1/FVC ratio < lower limit of normal (LLN) and z-FEV1 cut-points of -1.645, -2.5, and -4 ("zGLI Global"). We tested the four-tier severity scheme for association with COPD outcomes. The lowest agreement between ERS/ATS with zGLI Global and the GOLD classification was observed in individuals with milder disease (56.9% and 42.5% in GOLD 1 and 2) and race was a major determinant of redistribution. After adjustment for relevant covariates, zGLI Global distinguished all-cause mortality risk between normal spirometry and the first grade of COPD (Hazard Ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.44, p=0.014), and showed a linear increase in exacerbation rates with increasing disease severity, in comparison to GOLD. The zGLI Global severity classification outperformed GOLD in the discrimination of survival, exacerbations, and imaging characteristics.

Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping

High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation in social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution fluvial flood model with gridded population and poverty data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood) at 90-meter resolution. The index provides estimates of relative risk within or between countries and changes how we understand the geography of risk by identifying ‘hotspots’ characterised by high population density and high levels of social vulnerability. This approach, which emphasises risks to human well-being, could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches.

Do MENA firms consider climate risks? Evidence from the relationship between ESG and firm performance

ABSTRACT We investigate the moderating effect of climate risk, measured by Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and a Global Climate Risk Index (CRI), on the relationship between Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) score and firm performance using data on non-financial listed firms in the MENA region during the period 2006–2021. We perform the analysis in two stages, in the first stage, we examine the impact of ESG score on firm performance. The findings show that ESG score has a negative impact on operational and financial performance and a positive effect on market performance. Next, we hypothesize that ESG will have a more positive and stronger impact on firm performance in high than low climate risk countries. The results indicate mixed evidence. In further analysis, we have examined the effect of environmental performance index and net zero initiatives on the relationship of ESG on firm performance.

Homicide in Global Extremes: Exploring the Feasibility of EHM-Based Analysis in Finland and South Africa

Homicide remains a major cause of death globally. The global risk differentials are a persistent public health challenge. Africa’s homicide rate of 13 victims per 100,000 people is markedly higher than the European average (2.2 per 100,000 people). To understand the causes of such large differences, homicide research needs to move from country-level rates to disaggregated analyses in which homicide is broken down by victim, offender, and incident characteristics. We conducted a pilot study in which the European Homicide Monitor (EHM) coding manual is applied to a South African research location and compared to an extreme point in the Global North, Finnish urban areas. We find differential patterns in the two locations. The high-rate context of South Africa manifests a younger offender and victim age structure, a higher share of criminal and revenge motives and the use of firearms, and incidents in public places. In contrast, the comparatively low-rate Finnish context shows a higher relative share of intimate partner violence and familial incidents taking place in private places. The role of alcohol and drugs appears more salient in Finnish urban homicide, a finding calling for replication. We conclude by discussing the methodological challenges revealed by the pilot comparison.

Парадоксы доброты в контексте просоциального поведения: анализ современных концепций

&lt;p style="text-align: justify;"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Objective. &lt;/strong&gt;Analysis of the modern concepts of kindness as a moral and ethical construct and a predictor of prosocial human behavior, to identify paradoxes of kindness, indicating the multidimensionality and multidirectionality of the content of kindness, the ambivalence of the consequences of manifestation and the ambiguity of interpretation by the subjects of interaction. &lt;br&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background. &lt;/strong&gt;In the modern information technology world, the problem of preserving the human in man and his moral cultural code is clearly identified, which is clearly intensifying in an era of uncertainty, instability and global risks. Kindness as a virtue and value, a personal quality and one of the predictors of prosocial behavior, having an interdisciplinary status, is studied in sufficient detail by various researchers, but not all of their results are presented in the domestic literature, and therefore their consolidation and clarification of the &amp;ldquo;kindness&amp;rdquo; construct in within the framework of social psychology. &lt;br&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusions. &lt;/strong&gt;Main conclusions. The concept of &amp;ldquo;kindness&amp;rdquo; is clarified as an ethical construct of the individual and a predictor of prosocial behavior, as well as a social norm that regulates interpersonal interactions, strengthens trust and ensures social connections. &amp;ldquo;Paradoxes&amp;rdquo; of kindness have been identified, containing multidirectional psychological orientations &amp;ndash; care for the Other and care for oneself, ambivalent consequences of showing kindness and its ambiguous interpretation by the subjects of interaction. The prospects for empirical research aimed at studying subjective ideas about kindness, diagnosing its modes, and identifying socio-psychological mediators and moderators are identified.&lt;/p&gt;

Aptasensors for the Detection of Environmental Contaminants of High Concern in Water Bodies: A Systematic Review

With the advancement of technology and increasing industrial activity, anthropogenic contaminants are currently detected where there is no record of their presence or insufficient information about their toxicological impact. Consequently, there are not sufficiently robust local or global regulations, the ecotoxicological and human health risks are critical, and they may not be routinely monitored despite being ubiquitous. The interest in studying environmental contaminants, including micropollutants and emerging contaminants, in complex environmental water samples has grown in the last decade. Due to the concentrations in which they are typically found in the environment and the rapid global dispersion, the detection procedures for these substances must be capable of measuring very low concentrations. Many efforts have been made to improve remediation procedures or develop novel analytical methods for their determination. Although there are several robust and reliable standard analytical techniques for their monitoring, pollutant contamination requires simple and inexpensive methods for massive, in situ monitoring campaigns. In this regard, biosensors have emerged as devices with high selectivity, sensitivity, easy operation, and short analysis times. Aptasensors are biosensors based on a nucleic acid recognition element (aptamer). Due to their synthetic nature, stability, and easy production, aptamers are frequently employed to develop bioassays. This work presents a systematic review of the trends in using aptasensors for detecting environmental contaminants present in environmental water samples, as well as the estimation of the potential technological contribution these devices might give to environmental monitoring.

Deoxynivalenol Induces Intestinal Epithelial Barrier Damage through RhoA/ROCK Pathway-Mediated Apoptosis and F-Actin-Associated Tight Junction Disruption.

Deoxynivalenol (DON) poses a serious global food safety risk due to its high toxicity and contamination rate. It disrupts the intestinal epithelial barrier, allowing exogenous toxins to enter the circulation and resulting in sepsis and systemic toxicity. In this research, 32 male Kunming mice and Porcine Small Intestinal Epithelial (IPEC-J2) cells were treated with DON at 0-4.8 mg/kg (7 d) and 0-12 μM (24 h), respectively. Histopathological results revealed that DON disrupted the intestinal epithelial barrier, causing apoptosis and tight junction (TJ) injury. Immunofluorescence and protein expression results showed that DON-induced p53-dependent mitochondrial pathway apoptosis and fibrillar actin (F-actin)-associated TJ injury and that the RhoA/ROCK pathway were activated in mice jejunal tissue and IPEC-J2 cells. Pretreatment with RhoA or ROCK inhibitors (Rosin or Y-27632) maintained DON-induced apoptosis and F-actin-associated TJ injury in IPEC-J2 cells. Thus, DON induces damage to the intestinal epithelial barrier through the RhoA/ROCK pathway-mediated apoptosis and F-actin-associated TJ disruption.

The synergy effect of multi-country policy actions announced in reaction to global risk: A network structure perspective.

The policy actions of countries reflect adaptive responses of local components within the system to the dynamic global risk landscape. These responses can generate interactions and synergy effects on alleviating the evolution of global risks. Adopting a network perspective, the study proposes a theoretical framework that connects three structural characteristics of policy synergy, namely, synergy scale, alignment intensity, and timing synchronization. Focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic as a typical global risk context, the study finds that policy synergy with a larger scale, stronger alignment intensity, and more synchronized timing has a positive impact on mitigating global risks. The effect of alignment intensity is particularly pronounced when polycentric governance involves 20 countries facing severe risks, whereas the effect of timing synchronization is more significant when the multicenter group comprises more countries. Building upon the concept of an efficient scale of polycentric governance in various dimensions, this study develops a policy synergy index model. Through multiple empirical analyses, this study validates the causal relationship between policy synergy and the future evolution of global pandemic risk. Policymakers can leverage the dynamic changes in the policy synergy to predict future risk situations and implement well-rounded and appropriate policy actions, thereby enhancing the efficacy of the synergy effect of multi-country policy actions for risk governance.

Quantile frequency connectedness between crude oil volatility, geopolitical risk and major agriculture and livestock markets

ABSTRACT This article investigates the quantile frequency risk connectedness between the global geopolitical risk (GPR) index, the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), and the major agricultural and livestock indexes using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR)-based frequency connectedness approach. The empirical results suggest that spillover effects are higher in extreme market conditions than in normal market conditions. The GPR has a more significant impact on other markets in the long-term domain of extreme market conditions. Moreover, grain markets are the primary transmitters of spillovers, while OVX predominantly assumes the role of a net receiver of risk spillover effects in most instances. Meanwhile, although the spillover structure between frequencies is homogeneous at the same quantile level, the connection between major agricultural and livestock index markets and two uncertainty indexes is time-varying, and spillovers are heterogeneous at different quantile levels. Our research provides investors and policymakers with new understandings of the development of differentiated crude oil volatility and geopolitical risk aversion strategies under different market conditions, given the heterogeneity of volatility spillover connectedness under different market conditions and frequency domains.

The Worlds of Labor in Ghana’s Gold Mining Industry, c. 1895–1957

Abstract The global turn has contributed to a revitalization of labor history. Historians have become increasingly attentive to the varied forms of labor commodification that existed under capitalism. Many historians have welcomed this approach which challenges the universalism of “free” wage labor. Critics, however, have warned that global labor history risks re-inscribing the power of capital at the expense of local specificities, particularly in terms of the plurality of labor’s worlds and its (dis)connections with capital. This is not a new debate within African studies. Since the 1980s, historians of Africa have questioned the privileging of wage labor at the expense of other forms of labor and the focus on (post)colonial workplace relations to the exclusion of other relational power structures which shaped the behavior of African men and women. This article takes up these debates by focusing on different forms of labor connected to the gold mining industry in colonial Ghana. The article argues that African men and women involved in the mining sector, including mineworkers, petty traders, and sex workers, responded to their experience of commodification in ways that were about more than just their status as abstract sellers of labor power. What emerges from this analysis is a more nuanced understanding of the strategies and aspirations of African labor which was connected to the mining sector. That is to say, where colonial officials saw working patterns that were purportedly symptomatic of the “lazy” and “ill-disciplined” character of African labor, this article demonstrates otherwise. The behavior of African labor associated with the mining sector was indicative of choices that were made in accordance with individual and collective needs connected to issues of class, gender, and generation, which, in turn, were “entangled” with capitalist market imperatives but not necessarily determined by them.

Hypervolume Niche Dynamics and Global Invasion Risk of Phenacoccus solenopsis under Climate Change

As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis, is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of P. solenopsis, as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used n-dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of P. solenopsis under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model’s robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for P. solenopsis are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of P. solenopsis. This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of P. solenopsis.

Are Indian ports safe? Identifying, analysing and prioritizing the risks affecting India's major ports

Seaports are exposed to multiple risks that may affect security and operations. This research aims to develop a framework for identifying, ranking, and prioritizing the risks. Also, this study ranks the 12 major Indian ports based on the identified risk factors. The study follows an extensive literature review, prioritization by Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), and sensitivity analysis for robustness. Thirty-two risks were identified and classified into five categories: natural disasters, geographical risks, security risks, operational and financial risks, and socio-political risks. The analysis suggests that the most important risk that the ports in India should consider is natural disasters. The risk of cyclones and tsunamis occupied the first two ranks among the global risks. Operational and financial risks, such as complex and lengthy approval procedures and infrastructure risks, are ranked third and fourth. Mumbai is ranked first as the riskiest Indian port, followed by Kolkata, JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), and Vishakapatnam Port

Heavy metal contamination and environmental risk assessment: a case study of surface water in the Bahr Mouse stream, East Nile Delta, Egypt

Water, as an indispensable constituent of life, serves as the primary source of sustenance for all living things on Earth. The contamination of surface water with heavy metals poses a significant global health risk to humans, animals, and plants. Sharkiya Governorate, situated in the East Nile Delta region of Egypt, is particularly susceptible to surface water pollution due to various industrial, agricultural, and urban activities. The Bahr Mouse Stream, crucial for providing potable water and supporting irrigation activities in Sharkiya Governorate, caters to a population of approximately 7.7 million inhabitants. Unfortunately, this vital water source is exposed to many illegal encroachments that may cause pollution and deteriorate the water resource quality. In a comprehensive study conducted over two consecutive seasons (2019–2020), a total of 38 surface water samples were taken to assess the quantity of heavy metals in surface water destined for human consumption and other applications, supported by indices and statistics. The assessment utilized flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry to determine the concentration of key heavy metals including iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), and chromium (Cr). The calculated mean value of the Water Quality Index (WQI) was found to be 39.1 during the winter season and 28.05 during the summer season. This value suggests that the surface water maintains good quality and is suitable for drinking purposes. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the concentrations of heavy metals in the study area were below the recommended limits set by the World Health Organization and fell within the safe threshold prescribed by Egyptian legislation. Despite the identification of localized instances of illegal activities in certain areas, such as unauthorized discharges, the findings affirm that the Bahr Mouse stream is devoid of heavy metal pollution. This underscores the importance of continued vigilance and regulatory enforcement to preserve the integrity of these vital water resources.

Influenza Diagnosis Deep Learning: Machine Learning Approach for Pharyngeal Image Infection

INTRODUCTION: Annual influenza epidemics and rare pandemics represent a significant global health risk. Since the upper respiratory tract is the primary target of influenza, a diagnosis of influenza illness might be made using deep learning applied to pictures of the pharynx. Using pharyngeal imaging data and clinical information, the researcher created a deep-learning model for influenza diagnosis. People who sought medical attention for flu-like symptoms were the subjects included. METHODOLOGY: The study created a diagnostic and predicting Artificial Intelligence (AI) method using deep learning techniques to forecast clinical data and pharyngeal pictures for PCR confirmation of influenza. The accuracy of the AI method as a diagnostic tool was measured during the validation process. The extra research evaluated the AI model's diagnosis accuracy to that of three human doctors and explained the methodology using high-impact heat maps. In the training stage, a cohort of 8,000 patients was recruited from 70 hospitals. Subsequently, a subset of 700 patients, including 300 individuals with PCR-confirmed influenza, was selected from 15 hospitals during the validation stage. RESULTS: The AI model exhibited an operating receiver curve with an area of 1.01, surpassing the performance of three doctors by achieving a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 80%. The significance of heat maps lies in their ability to provide valuable insights. In AI models, particular attention is often directed towards analyzing follicles on the posterior pharynx wall. Researchers introduced a novel artificial intelligence model that can assist medical professionals in swiftly diagnosing influenza based on pharyngeal images.

Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities

In this paper, we shed light on the linkage between several global risks and stock market returns. We use a dataset including G7, BRICS, MENA, and SAHEL group countries for a period of more than 30 years. We explore the spillover effects on global stock markets fueled by geopolitical, climatic, and global health risks. We provide evidence of a significant negative impact of geopolitical shocks on stock markets across countries. Further, we document that geopolitical shocks contribute to the spillover transmission of stock market volatility We also document that climate change and the global health crisis constitute risks that should be considered as a factor that heightens geopolitical risk. Finally, we identify possible strategies to hedge against geopolitical risk using a specific set of financial assets such as artwork.